According to the National Weather Service, the question isn’t will it rain today, but how much will fall?

NWS meteorologist Mike Umscheid said rain isn’t just in the forecast for today, it’s the main thing in the forecast.

"It’s a foregone conclusion," he said when asked if it would rain today. "The question is how much will fall.

"Right now, we’re showing three-quarters of an inch to an inch of rain in Dodge City, with a chance for more due to localized heavier rains."

According to the meteorologist, severe weather will most likely occur south of Kansas.

The severe weather will take place in southern Oklahoma and northern Texas," Umscheid said. "We’ll see rain, some lightning and thunder, but nothing more than that."

A blast of chilly air will also be in the area today.

"Our forecast high is 52, but it will struggle to get into the 50s," Umscheid said. "We will definitely be on the cold side of the front."

The meteorologist said there will be some imbedded thunderstorms and that thunder will be heard periodically. He said the system should start near daybreak and continue into early evening.

Umscheid said weather models suggest another storm moving through southwest Kansas at the end of next week.

"Right now, we’re unsure of where exactly it will go through at," he said. "When the models get a week to 10 days out, it’s hard to say for certain. But it’s safe to say we will be dealing with another storm system April 28-30.

"If it goes north of us, it could get very warm in front of the front. Right now, Monday with a high of 83 forecast is the warmest of any day in the forecast.

"However, if that next storm system moves north, we could see days in the 90s just before it moves through."

The weather pattern looks a lot like 2016’s weather in southwest Kansas.

"It’s very similar to last year," Umscheid said. "Last year we had a drought to start the year, had a ton of rain in April and May, was steady through the summer and then something turned off and it got dry again.

"We started out with drought conditions, but we’re at 9.19 inches of rain for 2017. Normally we’re at 5 inches of rain through this date, so we’re ahead of normal and this rain (today) will add to the total.

"We’re not in a drought anymore and our status has gone from drought to abnormally dry according to our drought index."

 

Ton contact this writer email rbluhm@dodgeglobe.com.