Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns odds, picks and prediction
The Phoenix Suns host the Denver Nuggets Wednesday at Footprint Center for both teams' regular-season openers. Tip-off is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Nuggets vs. Suns odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Denver's season ended last year after being swept in the Western Conference Semifinals by Phoenix. The Nuggets failed to cover the spread in their four series losses to the Suns but were 2-1 overall and against the spread (ATS) vs. Phoenix in the regular season.
The Nuggets ended the regular season third place in the West and finished the season 51-31 overall record (38-44 ATS), which includes the postseason.
The Suns are running it back with the same team that finished second in the Western Conference last season with a 65-29 overall record (55-38-1 ATS), which includes the postseason.
Last year was Chris Paul's first with Phoenix and the Suns were beat by the Milwaukee Bucks in the NBA Finals, 4-2.
Nuggets at Suns odds, spread and lines
- Money line: Nuggets +205 (bet $100 to win $205) | Suns -260 (bet $260 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Nuggets +6.5 (-120) | Suns -6.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 224.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Nuggets at Suns key injuries
- PG Jamal Murray (knee) out
- Nothing affecting gambling odds.
Nuggets at Suns odds, lines, picks and predictions
Suns 119, Nuggets 109
PASS even though Phoenix is the right side because the Suns (-260) is a little out of my price range for an NBA regular-season favorite.
Denver's matchup issues in the backcourt against Phoenix in their playoff series persist. The Nuggets are still without Murray and his backup - PG Monte Morris - can't guard CP3. I'd expect Paul is going to work C Nikola Jokic and the rest of Denver's bigs in pick-and-roll action just like in the playoffs.
"LEAN" to the SUNS -6.5 (-105) for a half unit since their offense knifed through Denver's defense and there's no reason for Phoenix to not have similar success in this meeting.
The Suns were 30-17 ATS at home and 28-14 ATS as home favorites last season (including the playoffs). On the other hand, Denver was just 20-21 ATS on the road and 6-9 ATS as a road underdog, including the postseason.
Furthermore, according to CleaningTheGlass.com, Phoenix was 17-7 overall vs. teams top-10 in net points per 100 possessions with a plus-3.5-point differential last season. While Denver was 12-12 overall with a minus-1.4-point differential against teams top-10 in net points per 100 possessions.
"LEAN" to the OVER 224.5 (-108) for a half unit because there's a "line freeze" in the betting market that's concerning. More than 80% of the action is on the Over according to pregame.com, but the total hasn't budged since the opener.
Phoenix averaged 121.5 points per game in the Western Conference Semifinals series vs. Denver. Also, the winning side in the Nuggets-Suns meetings last year has scored at least 116 points in six of the seven contests.
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