NLCS Game 5: Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers odds, picks and prediction
The Atlanta Braves look to finish off the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 5 of the best-of-seven National League Championship Series Thursday. First pitch at Dodger Stadium is scheduled for 8:08 p.m. ET (TBS). Let's analyze the lines around the Braves vs. Dodgersodds with MLB picks and predictions.
Atlanta leads the NLCS 3 games to 1 after a 9-2 victory at Los Angeles Wednesday. LF Eddie Rosario homered twice and finished 4-for-5 with 3 runs and 4 RBIs as the Braves moved one win away from advancing to their first World Series since 1999.
The Dodgers have been here before. The defending World Series champion trailed the Braves 3-1 in last year's NLCS before winning the final three games to take the series.
However, those last two games were at a neutral site in Arlington, Texas. These final two games - if L.A. stays alive by winning Game 5 - will be in Atlanta.
Not only did the Dodgers lose Game 4, they likely lost All-Star 3B Justin Turner to a season-ending hamstring injury suffered in Wednesday's seventh inning. Turner hit .278 with 27 homers and 87 RBIs during the regular season.
Braves LHP Max Fried will make his second start of the NLCS and his third of this postseason Thursday. He tossed 2-run ball over 6 innings, allowing 8 hits with no walks and 5 strikeouts in Atlanta's 3-2 walk-off win Saturday in Game 1.
- Regular season: 14-7, 3.04 ERA (165 2/3 IP, 56 ER), 1.09 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 in 28 starts
- Postseason: 1-0, 1.50 ERA (12 IP, 2 ER), 11 H, 0 BB, 14 K in two starts
- Career vs. Dodgers (regular season): 1-2, 4.30 ERA (23 IP, 11 ER), 1.35 WHIP, 11.3 K/9 in five starts
The Dodgers haven't named their Thursday opener yet in what will be a bullpen game. RHP Corey Knebel, who opened twice in these playoffs, is the likely candidate. He was the opener in the Dodgers' NLDS-clinching Game 5 win vs. the San Francisco Giants Oct. 14, yielding just 1 hit in a scoreless first inning before being replaced.
- Regular season: 4-0, 2.45 ERA (25 2/3 IP, 7 ER), 0.97 WHIP, 10.5 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 across 185 2/3 IP in 27 games, including four starts
- Postseason: 0-0, 4.91 ERA (3 2/3 IP, 2 ER), 3 H, 1 BB, 6 K in five appearances, including two starts
- Career vs. Braves (regular season): 0-0, 2.79 ERA (9 2/3 IP, 3 ER), 10 H, 2 BB, 13 K in 10 relief appearances
Braves at Dodgers odds, lines, picks and prediction
- Money line: Braves +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Dodgers -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Braves +1.5 (-190) | Dodgers -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)
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Braves 4, Dodgers 3
Money line (ML)
ATLANTA (+ 110) is the STRONGEST PLAY - 1½ times your usual wager.
The Braves are 12-1 in Fried's last 13 starts, including 2-0 in the playoffs. He is 8-0 in those outings, including 7-0 with a 1.46 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in his final 11 regular-season starts.
Even though the Dodgers face a must-win, the value play is Atlanta with Fried on the mound and Turner out for L.A.
PASS even though the we won here Wednesday with the Braves, who are 4-0 ATS in this NLCS. The -190 is a just a bit too risky.
- Regular season: Braves 78-83 | Dodgers 82-80
- Postseason: Braves 7-1 | Dodgers 4-6
Atlanta is also 54-31 ATS on the road in 2021, including the playoffs.
BET 0.25 UNITS ON UNDER 7.5 (+ 100). However, wait it out to see if the line climbs to 8. Then BET UNDER TO WIN 0.7 UNITS.
- Regular season: Braves 74-78-9 | Dodgers 71-81-10
- Postseason: Braves 4-4 | Dodgers 5-5
The Under is 11-4 in Fried's 15 road starts in 2021, including 5-0 in his last five starts and 8-1 in his last nine.
The Under hit in Game 1 of this NLCS with the Braves prevailing 3-2, but the next three games all cashed Over tickets.
The Under is also 43-37-6 at Dodger Stadium this year.
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|*- SP: Strongest plays; ROI: Return on investment|
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