Underdog corner: 3 best NFL picks and predictions for Week 7
Despite NFL pointspread favorites winning a second straight week, we still had a winning week here, going 2-1 with the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans coming through.
That's now five winning weeks out of six as our season record moves to 13-5. Of our 13 underdog covers, 11 have won outright.
With six teams on a bye this week, it's a shallow card to choose from, but come up with three we must. Here are our NFL underdog ATS picks and predictions of Week 7.
Also see:All Week 7 odds and lines
NFL underdog predictions: Week 7
Tennessee Titans +5.5 (-110) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Over the last couple weeks:
- The Buffalo Bills beat the Chiefs 38-20 as road underdogs in Week 5.
- The Titans beat the Bills 34-31 as home underdogs in Week 6.
- Now, the Chiefs are 5.5-point Week 7 road favorites over the Titans in Nashville?
An eye-catching line to be sure, but we're not going to handicap a matchup going by results against a common foe alone.
However, the Chiefs have covered in only four of their last 17 games dating back to last season. In what should be a high-scoring affair Sunday, the mighty RB Derrick Henry and Tennessee should be able to keep it close going against a K.C. defense surrendering 133.2 rushing yards and 29.3 points per game and a league-most 6.7 yards per play.
Indianapolis Colts +4.5 (-115) at San Francisco 49ers
QB Carson Wentz and Indy started 0-3 but have won two of its last three. The loss was a 31-25 overtime setback in Week 5 on the road against the 5-1 Baltimore Ravens.
The Colts are 4-2 against the spread (ATS) - tied for fourth best in the league.
The 49ers (2-3) are coming off a bye and are expected to have QB Jimmy Garoppolo back from injury. Still, they are 1-4 ATS overall this year and 3-9 ATS as favorites since the start of last season.
The Niners very well could win Sunday night, but expect the improving Colts to keep it within the number.
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Seattle Seahawks +4.5 (-110) vs. New Orleans Saints
In the 11 combined games involving the Saints and Seahawks this season, the underdogs have covered eight times with seven outright wins.
In addition, the home team has won all six Monday night games so far, going 5-1 ATS in process. So, Seattle was the choice to round out our underdog card.
We realize the Saints have had a bye week to prepare and the QB Geno Smith-led Seahawks are playing a second straight game without elite QB Russell Wilson.
But we're banking on seeing more of the fight Seattle showed last week at the Pittsburgh Steelers - egged on this time by the always-raucous Seattle primetime crowd - and also one or two of the typical mistakes from Saints QB Jameis Winston to help the home team get the Monday night cover.
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